| INTEREST-RATE BENEFICIATION AND THE CHEAP-CAR CONUNDRUM |
Not all economists agree, but the signs overwhelmingly point to an interest rate cut when Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago convenes the first 2026 Monetary Policy Committee Meeting tomorrow. With both the Rand and global oil prices - arguably the most significant determinants - tracking well below the SARB’s November expectations (see below), the only question is to what extent the MPC will be swayed by the inflation trajectory going forward.
A downward revision of the interest rate is bound to lower borrowing costs, benefiting consumers by reducing car loan repayments and making vehicle purchases more affordable. Speaking of vehicles, the government is weighing anti-dumping duties on the flood of Chinese and Indian cars (see below) to help bolster the domestic automotive sector. While increasing prices to level the playing field is the preferred choice of intervention, we have to ask why governments at all three tiers is not compelled to buy cars made locally? Surely, in the interests of supporting domestic manufacturing and local industry, government fleets should be 100% local? Derek Alberts (Editor)
|
| ROYAL SHOW FINDS A NEW HOME IN TWEEDIE IN TIME FOR 2026 EVENT |
A site plan of the RAS’ new operational base. Apologies for the poor quality of the image.
The Royal Agricultural Society of Natal (RAS) has a new home in the outskirts of Howick after purchasing the historic Tweedie Hall. The venue will serve as the new base of operations, in time for the 2026 Royal Agricultural Show from 29 May to 3 June to mark the Society's 175th anniversary. According to the RAS’ post on facebook, the “historic Tweedie Hall premises will provide ample and appropriate space for the diverse agricultural exhibits.
|
| 2021 KZN INSURECTIONISTS TO GO ON TRIAL IN JULY |
| Almost five years to the day that KZN woke up to the orchestrated unrest in July 2021, 62 alleged instigators are heading to the Durban High Court in July and August. The KZN Division of the National Prosecution Authority said yesterday the matter was “trial-ready” and set down for 20 July up to 21 August, and also from 24 August to 18 September. The accused face charges of conspiracy to commit public violence, incitement to commit public violence, terrorism, sedition, and conspiracy to commit murder. |
1881: The Boers defeated British forces at Laing’s Nek during the First Anglo-Boer War.
Elsewhere, in 1986, the space shuttle Challenger exploded 73 seconds after lift-off, killing all seven astronauts on board.
Get building, it's International Lego Day. |
INTEREST RATE RELIEF RISES ON BENIGN INFLATION OUTLOOK
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley see room for the South African Reserve Bank to revise its 2026 inflation forecast downwards by 0.2–0.3 percentage points. The Rand has strengthened to under R16/$ (currently trading at R15.79), well below the SARB’s November assumption of R17.25/$, while oil trades near $64 a barrel, under the $67 forecast.
Goldman analysts Andrew Matheny and Ludovica Ambrosino said, “This implies a likely downward revision to the inflation outlook for 2026.” Morgan Stanley and Nedbank project 3.2% inflation, below the SARB’s 3.5% estimate, nearing the National Treasury’s 3% target. Economists remain split on an interest rate cut tomorrow - .11 of 21 surveyed expect a 25bps rate cut to 6.5%, while the rest forecast a hold. Officials cite growth, geopolitical risks, and currency volatility as reasons to proceed cautiously. (SOURCE: Bloomberg)
|
RECORD ARRIVALS SET SCENE FOR TOURISM GROWTH PHASE
South Africa’s tourism sector has moved decisively from recovery to expansion after welcoming a record 10.485-million international visitors in 2025, surpassing the previous high reached in 2018. Tourism minister Patricia de Lille said arrivals rose 17.6% from 2024, placing the sector 2.6% above pre-Covid levels. Tourism now supports about 1.8 million jobs, with one new job created for every 13 international arrivals. Key priorities include the full rollout of the electronic Travel Authorisation system, expected to generate up to 100 000 jobs, stronger destination marketing, enhanced safety through 1 500 monitors, and infrastructure investment exceeding R1 billion. (SOURCE: BDLive)
|
COAL EXPORTS RISE 10% ON TRANSNET RECOVERY
Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) exported 57.66-million tonnes of coal in 2025, more than 10% higher than the previous year, signalling steady improvement at Transnet’s coal rail line. RBCT CEO Alan Waller said exports are on track to exceed 60 million tonnes in 2026, with a consistent annualised rate of 65-million tonnes targeted. January throughput is already running at an annualised 62-million tonnes. Performance gains stem from the rollout of faster French 23E locomotives and a sharp fall in cable theft, down from 180km in 2024 to 59km in 2025. Asia absorbed nearly 80% of exports, led by India, underscoring coal’s continued export earnings importance for South Africa. (SOURCE: Daily Maverick)
|
R1 BILLION THRESHOLD TO BOOST MERGER LANDSCAPE
South Africa plans to amend antitrust rules governing merger notifications, a move aimed at cutting red tape and lowering compliance costs for businesses. The department of trade, industry & competition has proposed raising the lower reporting threshold for mergers to R1 billion in combined annual turnover or assets, from R600 million. The notification trigger for a target firm would rise 75% to R175 million. For large mergers, the higher threshold would increase to R9.5 billion from R6.6 billion, with the target threshold lifted to R280 million. Officials say the changes could speed up deal-making, reduce legal costs and support growth in an economy that has struggled to exceed 1% annual expansion. (SOURCE: News24)
|
50% ANTI-DUMPING DUTIES TO STEM CHINESE, INDIAN AUTO IMPORTS
South Africa is weighing antidumping duties of up to 50% up from the current 26% on Chinese and Indian vehicles amid a surge in imports that is undermining local manufacturing. Parliament heard that vehicle imports from China have jumped 368% since 2020, while those from India are up 135%, pushing imports to 55% of domestic sales. Local content has stalled at 39%, far below the 60% target, while production has stagnated at about 600,000 vehicles a year. Component manufacturers have recorded 13 closures and more than 4,000 job losses in three years. Government officials said tariffs and tax reforms are under review to protect jobs and localisation. (SOURCE: BDLive)
|
NERSA PROBES ESKOM TARIFF RELIEF FOR SMELTERS
Eskom has asked Nersa to approve an interim electricity tariff for Samancor and Glencore-Merafe smelters, bridging to a lower tariff from 1 March. The utility also seeks a one-year extension of a take-or-pay waiver, initially granted for six months. The move aims to save hundreds of jobs in struggling ferrochrome and related smelting industries, already issuing retrenchment notices. Regulators questioned funding sources, potential revenue impacts, and whether the proposed 87c/kWh tariff meets smelters’ sustainable 62c/kWh target. Nersa must balance consumer interests, Eskom’s finances, and industry sustainability before granting approval for the interim relief. (SOURCE: Moneyweb)
|
ZIMBABWE'S 4.1% INFLATION MILESTONE RAISES EYEBROWS
Zimbabwe’s official annual inflation rate fell to 4.1% in January, marking the first single-digit reading since 1997, according to government data. Authorities attribute the sharp decline to tighter monetary policy, currency reforms and the introduction of the Zimbabwe Gold (ZiG) currency. Inflation stood at about 15% in December 2025, down from far higher levels earlier in the year. However, economists have urged caution, noting that base effects, price controls and methodological changes may be skewing the headline figure.. (SOURCE: Bloomberg)
|
INDIA, EU SEAL GROUND-BREAKING FREE TRADE DEAL
India and the European Union have concluded a long-awaited free trade agreement aimed at deepening economic and strategic ties after nearly two decades of negotiations. The accord covers almost all goods traded between the EU’s 27 members and India, a market accounting for 25% of global GDP. India will reduce tariffs on 96.6% of EU imports, while the bloc will phase in duty-free access for almost 99% of Indian exports. The deal could save exporters up to €4 billion a year and lift trade from $136.5 billion to $200 billion by 2030. It follows recent EU trade agreements with Japan, Indonesia, Mexico and Mercosur, reflecting Brussels’ push to diversify partners amid global trade tensions. (SOURCE: AP)
|
ELECTRIC CARS OVERTAKE PETROL IN EU SALES FOR FIRST TIME
Electric vehicles outsold petrol cars in the EU for the first time in December, accounting for 51% of registrations, Reuters reported, even as emissions rules were eased. Battery-electric sales surged 51% year on year, while plug-in hybrids rose 36.7% and hybrids 5.8%, together making up 67% of registrations. Total sales across the EU, UK and EFTA climbed 7.6% to 1.2 million vehicles in December and 13.3 million in 2025. Volkswagen and Stellantis posted gains, while Tesla sales fell 20.2% as China’s BYD jumped 229.7%. (SOURCE: Reuters)
|
FRANCE ON TRACK FOR UNDER-15 SOCIAL MEDIA BAN
French lawmakers have approved legislation banning social media use for children under 15, following Australia’s lead on age-based restrictions, and clearing the way for the measure to take effect from September. The bill, passed 130–21, also restricts mobile phone use in high schools and will now be debated in the Senate. President Emmanuel Macron backed the fast-tracked move, citing scientific advice and public concern over children’s mental health. The ban aligns with the EU’s Digital Services Act and reflects growing momentum across Europe for minimum age limits. Health authorities say 90% of French teenagers use smartphones daily, with social media linked to reduced self-esteem and exposure to harmful content. (SOURCE: AP)
|
PEOPLE MANAGEMENT FORUM
The Forum for HR professionals to discuss and address current and difficult HR matters
Facilitated by : Raj Seeparsad
AGENDA
• South Africa's Constitutional Court has confirmed equal parental leave for all parents – a landmark judgment that requires immediate updates to HR policies and employment practices.
In Van Wyk and Others v Minister of Employment and Labour, the Court has fundamentally reshaped the parental leave landscape. This ruling has far-reaching implications for BCEA and UIF compliance, demanding that employers move swiftly to align policies with a fair, inclusive, and gender-neutral approach to parental leave.
Redfern Incorporated (Labour Law Attorneys) will unpack:
• The key legal principles arising from the judgment
• Practical implications for employers and HR practitioners
• Required changes to parental leave policies and procedures
• How to implement compliant, equitable leave frameworks without operational disruption
Join us for an interactive and practical session at the first People Management Forum for 2026, designed to equip employers with clear guidance and actionable steps in response to this pivotal legal development.
• Termination by Operational of Law.
• Disciplinary Enquiry and Resignation to avoid the disciplinary Enquiry.
Date: 4 February 2026
Time: 15:00 - 17:00
Venue: PMCB Offices - 1 Parkhaven , 55 Macleroy Road, Northern Park, Pietermaritzburg
Cost: Free - PMCB members, R60 (incl. vat) non PMCB members |
|
|
Freedom consists not in doing what we like, but in having the right to do what we ought.
Pope John Paul 11 |
|
|
|
| Dollar | R15.79
| + 0.41% | | Pound | R21.83 | + 0.60% | | Euro | R18.98 | + 0.64% | | Yen | 0.103753 |
| | Yuan | R2.27
| + 0.28% | | Bitcoin | $ 89 090.95 | + 0.04% |
These rates are correct at time of going to press. | | Platinum | $ 2. 685.60
| + 1.53% | | Gold | $ 5 280.90 | + 1.92% | | Oil | $ 66.63
| + 0.02% | | All Share | 125 331.62
| + 1.55% | | Repo | 6.75 | | | Prime | 10.25 | |
|
|
|
|
|
