| RECOVERY ROADMAP HAS DIRECTION, BUT WHERE'S THE TRACTION? |
South Africa’s recovery road map shows early progress but limited traction. Growth of 1.1% in 2025 reflects stabilisation gains from energy and logistics reforms, yet investment remains stuck near 14% of GDP, far below the 30% target. With private and public spending weakening, the route remains stabilisation-heavy rather than transformation-driven, risking prolonged low-growth, high-unemployment outcomes without stronger investment-led acceleration path.
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| DURBAN PORT SETS SIGHTS ON THREE-FOLD EXPANSION |
The proposed reclamation of land is set to expand the Durban Port and Container Terminal about three times. Graphic courtesy of AI assistance.
Transnet is planning a roughly threefold expansion of container capacity at the Port of Durban, anchoring its proposal to reclaim land from the sea to unlock growth and ease congestion. The project aims to lift capacity from about 3 million TEUs to between 10 million and 11 million, while overall freight throughput could reach 250-million tonnes.
Although the exact footprint of the reclaimed land has not been disclosed, the scale of the capacity increase points to a substantial physical expansion, likely involving new terminals and deeper berths. The plan now awaits environmental approval, with success hinging on execution and broader logistics reforms. (SOURCE: BDLive)
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| FAIRFIELD DAIRY TO EXPAND OPERATIONS WITH LADISMITH BUY |
Howick-based Fairfeld Diary has been cleared by the Competition Commission to acquire Ladismith Cheese Company, subject to conditions aimed at supporting public interest objectives. Fairfield processes, produces, packages and sells dairy products for South African retailers, under retailer brands or house brands, as well as its own First Choice brand. It supplies fresh milk, yoghurt, butter, cream, cheese and other products, while Ladismith produces cheese, skimmed milk, butter and powdered-milk products. (SOURCE: Engineering News)
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1688: The first group of French Huguenots arrived at the Cape.
Elsewhere, in 1997, Tiger Woods at 21 years and 104 days, became the youngest golfer to win the Masters Tournament.
A doff to nature on International Plant Appreciation Day. It's also International Functional Neurological Disorder (FND) Day to help reduce stigma around neurologic symptoms that don’t fit old stereotypes.
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DIESEL-SUPPLY RISKS MAY TRIGGER LOADSHEDDING RETURN
South Africa’s electricity system faces renewed risk of Stage 1 or 2 loadshedding if diesel supply constraints worsen, warns energy advisory firm Cresco Project Finance. Eskom relies on diesel-fuelled open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs) for peak demand support, but about 57% of national diesel imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, exposing supply chains to geopolitical shocks.
Eskom typically uses 3%–10% of diesel supply, but this can rise to 20%–30% during stress periods, increasing competition with private backup generators. With 17.7GW of coal capacity set for decommissioning by 2035 and only 4.8GW of current reserve margin, analysts warn system vulnerability is rising. Without sufficient batteries, renewables, and gas replacement capacity, structural shortages could re-emerge from 2029 onward. (SOURCE: Engineering News)
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.... AS PRICE SPIKE DRIVES FREIGHT FIRMS TO EDGE
The road freight industry is under severe strain as surging diesel costs threaten widespread closures and disrupt supply chains. Operators warn recent fuel increases, driven by global oil shocks, are eroding already thin margins. Fuel can account for up to 40% of operating costs, leaving little room to absorb hikes. Industry players caution that further increases could push smaller firms out of business, risking job losses and reduced transport capacity. The pressure is compounded by logistics inefficiencies and crime, with rising transport costs feeding into inflation and broader economic risks. (SOURCE: FreightNews)
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GODONGWANA DEFENDS FUEL LEVY IN COURT BATTLE
Finance minister Enoch Godongwana is opposing a court bid by the Economic Freedom Fighters to scrap or amend the fuel levy, warning it could destabilise public finances. The general fuel levy contributes more than R90 billion annually to the fiscus, making it a critical revenue stream. Treasury argues removing or suspending it would widen the budget deficit and strain already stretched resources. The EFF says the levy inflates fuel prices and worsens living costs. Government recently cut the levy by about R3 per litre temporarily, but insists permanent changes require careful fiscal balancing. The case could reshape fuel pricing policy. (SOURCE: BDLive)
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... AS TOYOTA URGES SHIFT TOWARDS HYBRIDS
Toyota South Africa Motors is calling on government to prioritise hybrid vehicles as part of South Africa’s transition away from high-emission transport, arguing that hybrids offer a more practical and affordable pathway than a rapid full shift to electric vehicles. The company says hybrids can reduce fuel consumption and emissions without requiring extensive charging infrastructure, which remains limited locally. Toyota warns that policy uncertainty and slow infrastructure rollout could delay progress on cleaner mobility. It also highlights that hybrids already form a significant share of global sales and could help SA cut transport emissions while supporting jobs in the local automotive manufacturing sector and supply chains. (SOURCE: News24)
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SMELTER DEAL HANDS FERROCHROME INDUSTRY LIFELINE
South Africa’s ferrochrome sector has secured a major electricity cost reprieve after Eskom agreed to a new tariff of 62c/kWh for key smelter operators, pending approval by National Energy Regulator of South Africa within 30 days. The deal applies to Glencore-Merafe Chrome Venture and Samancor Chrome, cutting power costs from R1.36/kWh and 87c/kWh levels, and potentially restarting idle smelters. Electricity makes up 40%–60% of production costs, with 11 of 66 smelters currently operating amid a 900% rise in power prices since 2008. The agreement could unlock R76 billion in exports, R18 billion in Eskom revenue and support jobs, though other operators must still negotiate separate deals. (SOURCE: Moneyweb)
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ESKOM CLEARS R38 BILLION BOND IN TURNAROUND
Eskom has redeemed its R38 billion ES26 bond, marking a key milestone in its push toward financial stability. First issued in 2007, the bond grew significantly over 19 years, reflecting sustained investor demand. Eskom says the repayment signals improved governance and benefits from state-backed debt relief measures, alongside stronger financial performance. The utility believes settling the obligation will help lower its risk premium and reduce future borrowing costs. Analysts view the move as a positive step, though Eskom still faces structural challenges, including high debt levels, infrastructure constraints and ongoing pressure to maintain reliable electricity supply nationwide. (SOURCE: Engineering News)
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... AS OPTASIA SET FOR R5.5 BILLION EXPANSION
Optasia has secured a $330 million (about R5.5 billion) financing facility to refinance existing debt and fuel further growth, signalling strong investor confidence in its fintech model. The group plans to use the capital to strengthen its balance sheet while expanding operations across key emerging markets. The deal follows its recent JSE listing and continued earnings momentum, positioning Optasia to scale digital financial services, including airtime credit and micro-lending. Analysts say the funding enhances flexibility and supports acquisition opportunities, though execution risks remain in competitive, regulation-heavy markets where growth depends on disciplined capital deployment and sustained customer uptake. (SOURCE: BDLive)
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... AND HYPROP RAISES R580 MIILION IN OVERSUBSCRIBED AUCTION
Hyprop Investments has raised R580 million through an oversubscribed bond auction, attracting R3.1billion in bids - more than five times the target - highlighting strong investor demand. The REIT said proceeds will be used to manage maturing debt, optimise its capital structure and fund earnings-enhancing upgrades across its South African and Eastern European retail property portfolio. Investor appetite pushed pricing to record-low margins, with three-year bonds priced at 94 basis points and five-year paper at 111 basis points. About 91% of accepted bids came from institutional investors outside the banking sector. The transaction strengthens Hyprop’s funding flexibility and supports its long-term growth and refinancing strategy. (SOURCE: SENS)
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NO PLACE FOR SOUTH AFRICA AT G20 TABLE IN US
South Africa has confirmed it will not attend the upcoming Group of 20 finance ministers’ meeting in Washington after the United States declined to accredit its delegation, escalating diplomatic tensions. Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana said neither he nor Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago will participate, effectively sidelining the country from G20 processes for the year. The dispute follows US President Donald Trump’s earlier decision to exclude South Africa from his planned G20 summit in Miami. Although South Africa remains a formal G20 member, officials say lack of accreditation blocks participation, marking a significant breakdown in engagement with the US-led presidency. (SOURCE: Bloomberg)
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AFRICAN INVESTMENT OUTLOOK BEATS BACK RISK FEARS
Wars in the Middle East and Ukraine are reshaping global risk perceptions and highlighting Africa as more resilient than traditionally assumed, according to TLG Capital. CEO Zain Latif says defensive African assets are delivering steady returns of about 12%, supported by strong performance in sovereign and equity markets. An IMF study shows sub-Saharan African countries pay roughly 0.5 percentage points more to borrow than comparable peers, a gap known as a “prejudice premium,” though recent returns are challenging that view. African local-currency bonds have gained about 28% over the past year versus 15% in emerging markets, while Ghana’s stock index is up 42% in Dollar terms and Nigeria’s 36%. However, risks from debt, conflict and global shocks remain significant. (SOURCE: Bloomberg)
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US GUNS FOR HORMUZ BLOCKADE AS IRAN TALKS COLLAPSE
The United States announced plans for a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after collapsed talks with Iran, escalating tensions and threatening global oil flows. President Donald Trump warned that any attacks on US or civilian vessels would trigger overwhelming retaliation, while insisting the US Navy would interdict ships entering or leaving the waterway. The move follows failed negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme and a fragile ceasefire now at risk. Oil prices surged amid supply fears, with markets bracing for volatility. Iran rejected US demands, while Vice President JD Vance said Washington’s final proposal was refused, leaving diplomacy uncertain. (SOURCE: Bloomberg)
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The only thing you sometimes have control over is perspective. You don't have control over your situation. But you have a choice about how you view it.
Chris Pine |
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