| THERE'S NOTHING ILLUSIONARY ABOUT OIL'S CRUDE TRUTH |
The May Day long weekend isn’t starting well with the price of Brent crude rocketing to a four-year high (US$123) and triggering a run on the Rand flirting with the R17/$ level this morning, not to mention fueling the fires of inflation. There’s no let up in the geopolitical pressures - stalled efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, comments by Donald Trump on maintaining a naval blockade, and the domino impact of oil trade route disruptions.
A disruption of around 20% of global oil supply is more than enough to spur a sharp crude price spike, especially in tight markets with low spare capacity. But the deeper issue is structural dependence on fossil fuels: economies, transport and industry remain highly oil-reliant, amplifying price shocks and geopolitical risk.
History shows it’s not an unfamiliar scenario that inevitably ignites a push back under the self-explanatory term of “demand destruction”. This time round, more than 50 nations are gathering to plan a phased fossil fuel retreat that necessarily means a shift towards mega installations of batteries to power grids and, closer home, the transition towards electric vehicles is picking up pace. These developments don’t happen overnight, but serve as a reminder of the Ernest Hemingway quote about things happening “gradually and then suddenly”, as the historic trajectory of oil prices show.
Tomorrow is a public holiday, and if the transition of energy systems is confounding, perhaps a visit to the Durban Museum of Illusions will help highlight just how real perceptions are. Happy day off tomorrow. Derek Alberts (editor)
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| ITALIAN RIDE TO ENTRENCH LEGACY, RAISE FUNDS FOR HOSPICE |
Reagan, his dad Chris and grandfather Tinus Havinga.
A ride with a purpose will see Tinus and Ann Havinga tackle 400 km and 4 300 m of climbing across Italy during week two of the Giro route in May 2026, transforming endurance into meaning. Their journey honours their grandson Reagan, who died from Adrenoleukodystrophy, a rare disorder, and serves as a moving tribute to the compassion of Hospice, whose care brought dignity and comfort in his final months. Riding through iconic landscapes from Tuscany to the Alps, the couple aim to raise R100 000 via GivenGain. Beyond the physical challenge, their mission is to turn grief into hope, supporting Hospice’s vital work for families facing life-limiting illness while keeping Reagan’s legacy alive. Click here for more information and how to donate. |
| SINGAKWENZA DRAWS ON GLOBAL INSIGHT TO SHAPE EARLY LEARNING |
Singakwenza Director Julie Hay addressing the World Forum Foundation Conference in Kuala Lumpur.
Singakwenza routinely draws on international best practice in its early childhood development approach and recently participated in the World Forum Foundation Conference in Kuala Lumpur. Supported by sponsorship from Emirates Airline Foundation, Singakwenza Director Julie Hay shared practical methods for sustainable classrooms, promoting play-based learning through recycling. The event brought together delegates from more than 50 countries, enabling exchanges on challenges and innovation in early learning. Despite reduced attendance due to global conflicts, discussions on equity, diversity and inclusion remained central, reinforcing Singakwenza’s commitment to accessible, environmentally conscious education that reflects diverse children’s experiences and voices.
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1975: South Africa was suspended from the World Meteorological Organisation.
Elsewhere, in 2018, a newly discovered water beetle was named after Leonardo DiCaprio in honour of his environmental activism.
Also on this day in 1952, Mr Potato Head became the first toy advertised on TV, the first campaign marketed directly at children.
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TOP LAW FIRMS CHALLENGE B-BBEE CODE TIMELINES
Three major South African firms - Bowmans, Webber Wentzel and Werksmans - will join Norton Rose Fulbright in the Gauteng High Court from May 4–8 to challenge the Legal Sector Code. They argue the framework is impractical, requiring 10% black ownership increases every two years despite partnership structures that evolve over a decade.
Court papers note more than 95% of firms are exempt, limiting impact. The firms support transformation but say the code overlooks key measures like bursaries and skills development, and could harm long-term progress. They seek a reset to evidence-based, workable transformation rules. (SOURCE: Moneyweb)
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MOODY’S EXIT SPARKS TWO-YEAR TRANSITION FOR BANKS
South African banks have been granted a 24-month transition period to replace credit ratings from Moody’s following a regulatory decision affecting its local ratings arm. The move requires lenders to secure alternative ratings to meet compliance standards, though it does not affect South Africa’s sovereign rating by Moody’s Investors Service. Regulators say the phased approach will ensure stability while maintaining market confidence. Moody’s data shows Africa’s median local currency debt interest rate is about 12%, compared with 8% in Latin America and 5.5% in emerging Asia, underscoring the importance of credible credit assessment frameworks. (SOURCE: BDLive)
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FOREIGN ARRIVALS UP IN MARCH TO DEFY TRAVEL COSTS
Foreign arrivals to South Africa rose 8.4% year-on-year in March to about 820 000 visitors, signalling steady tourism recovery despite rising travel costs. Growth was led by regional African markets and a gradual return of long-haul travellers. However, higher airfares - driven by jet fuel spikes and elevated petrol and diesel prices - are squeezing demand. Industry data shows fuel can account for up to 30% of airline operating costs, pushing ticket prices higher. Economists warn sustained cost pressures could curb momentum, even as tourism - contributing roughly 3% to GDP - remains key to jobs, exports and broader economic recovery prospects. (SOURCE: BDLive)
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DIGITAL SPENDING UP 71.5% OVER EASTER
Alternative credit is reshaping South Africa’s retail landscape, driving a 71.5% year-on-year surge in digital spending during April’s Easter trading period. Data from PayJustNow shows order volumes climbed 72.9%, with full-month growth tracking above 80%, even as average basket size dipped 0.8%. Growth is being fuelled by more frequent, smaller purchases rather than large once-off transactions, reflecting constrained consumers adapting behaviour. The platform processes over 11,000 daily transactions with an 88% repeat rate and default levels below 2%. Analysts say structured payment options are becoming central to sustaining retail demand. (SOURCE: Bizcommunity)
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... AS PET OWNERS SPLURGE 28% MORE ON PREMIUM FOOD
South Africa’s pet food market is booming, with sales rising 28% between 2021 and 2025 as consumers increasingly prioritise pets as family members. Industry data shows the sector is now worth about R8 billion, with projections to reach R12.6 billion by 2032. Pet food dominates, accounting for roughly 74% of total spend, driven by consistent, repeat purchases. Around 45% of adults own pets, reinforcing demand even amid economic pressure. Retailers report that consumers are not trading down, continuing to buy premium products. Analysts say the category has become a resilient growth segment, offering retailers stable revenue despite constrained household budgets. (SOURCE: Bizcommunity)
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TOP 20 CORPORATES DROP BIODIVERSITY BALL
South African companies are falling behind in addressing mounting nature-related risks, according to WWF South Africa. An assessment of 20 major JSE-listed firms found only one has formally adopted the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD), with just four committing to alignment by end-2025. Globally, more than 620 organisations managing over $20 trillion (about R337 trillion) in assets have adopted the framework, highlighting the gap. Experts warn biodiversity loss threatens supply chains, raising costs and disrupting operations. With regulatory pressure building ahead of 2030 global biodiversity targets, analysts say companies risk being unprepared for stricter disclosure requirements and investor scrutiny. (SOURCE: Bizcommunity)
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SOUTH32 SEEKS GREENER ESKOM POWER FOR HILLSIDE SMELTER
Mining company South32 is in talks with Eskom to secure a greener electricity supply for its Hillside aluminium smelter, one of the utility’s largest customers. The miner says negotiations are constructive, contrasting with its Mozal operation in Mozambique, where power disputes forced a shift to care and maintenance and resulted in job losses. A revised South African deal could support lower emissions while preserving thousands of local jobs and sustaining export capacity. Industry analysts say the outcome will signal whether energy reform can stabilise the country’s smelting sector, long pressured by high tariffs, unreliable supply, and decarbonisation demands over the coming years. (SOURCE: BDLive)
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EU FRETS OVER PRICE RISES IN SAPPI PAPER DEAL
EU antitrust regulators have opened an investigation into a proposed €1.42 billion (about R28 billion) joint venture between UPM-Kymmene and Sappi, warning it could reduce competition and raise prices across Europe. The deal would combine UPM’s communication papers unit with Sappi’s graphic paper operations amid falling demand, high energy costs and structural overcapacity. The European Commission says the merger could cut capacity in coated mechanical and wood-free coated paper markets, leading to higher prices for printers and publishers. It is assessing remedies, including possible asset sales, with a final decision expected by 26 October 2026. (SOURCE: Reuters)
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OPENAI MISSES CHATGPT TARGETS AS IPO RISKS MOUNT
OpenAI has missed key revenue and user growth targets, casting doubt on its IPO ambitions as financial and legal pressures build. Weekly ChatGPT users reached about 900 million, short of a one billion target, while revenue lagged amid intensifying competition from Google’s Gemini and Anthropic. The company’s aggressive $600bn data centre commitments are under scrutiny despite a $122bn funding round, expected to be depleted within three years. Adding risk, Elon Musk’s lawsuit seeking structural changes is heading to trial, while CFO Sarah Friar has warned about funding gaps and IPO readiness concerns. (SOURCE: RocaNews)
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DIVIDED FED HOLDS RATES, POWELL STAYS ON
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in the 5.25% to 5.50% range amid internal divisions over the inflation outlook and economic momentum, signalling a cautious policy stance. Chair Jerome Powell is set to remain on the board as governor even after his term as chair ends, ensuring continuity at the central bank. Policymakers remain split between concerns over persistent inflation and risks to growth, with recent data offering mixed signals. Markets reacted with modest volatility as investors recalibrated expectations for future rate cuts, while officials emphasised a data-dependent approach to navigating ongoing global and domestic economic uncertainty. (SOURCE: Bloomberg)
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Instruction does not prevent wasted time or mistakes; and mistakes themselves are often the best teachers of all.
James Anthony Froude |
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| Dollar | R16.85 | - 0.19% | | Pound | R22.71 | - 0.37% | | Euro | R19.67
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